7,773.95S&P 500 · Oct 5 close · +0.66% · Nasdaq at a record

DailyDrop.

5.31%10-yr Treasury · Oct 5 · up about 3 bp, near its 2002 high
S&P 5007,773.95▲0.66%10/5Nasdaq27,477.31▲1.05%10/5Dow51,267.90▲0.18%10/510-yr5.31%▲3bp10/5WTI$89.43▼1.84%10/5Gold$4,156.80▼0.13%10/5
Supreme Court · ClimateSource ✓ Court argument calendar, Oct. 5 order list · Press ✓ 6 outlets

The Court opens its term with Boulder's climate suit against Big Oil. Alito sits out, and a 4–4 tie would let the case go on

Eight justices spent nearly two hours on whether Colorado law can make Suncor and ExxonMobil help pay for climate damage. The three liberals leaned toward Boulder; Roberts and Kavanaugh toward the companies. Alito has recused himself without a stated reason.

The Supreme Court opened its 2026–27 term on Monday with Suncor Energy v. Commissioners of Boulder County (No. 25-170), the first of the dozens of state and local climate suits to be argued before the justices. Boulder County and the City of Boulder sued Suncor and ExxonMobil in Colorado state court, claiming under state tort law, including public nuisance and trespass, that the companies sold fossil fuels while misleading the public about the risks and should help pay for the heat, wildfire and flood costs that followed. Colorado's Supreme Court let the case go forward. The companies, backed by the federal government, argue that climate change is a national and global problem that only federal law can govern, and that the Clean Air Act and federal common law leave no room for a state jury to put what amounts to a price on emissions. Justice Samuel Alito did not take part, and the Court gave no reason. That leaves eight justices and opens the door to a 4–4 split, which would leave Colorado's ruling in place without setting a national rule. The stakes reach well beyond Colorado. Similar suits by states and cities, from Honolulu to California, are moving through state courts; a ruling for the companies would end most of them, while a loss would push them toward discovery, where internal company records become evidence. Boulder's case reached the justices before any trial, which is why jurisdiction became the first fight.

Justice Clarence Thomas opened by asking whether the Court even has jurisdiction over a state case that has not reached a final judgment, and Justices Kagan, Sotomayor and Jackson pressed the same point with the companies' lawyer. Justice Amy Coney Barrett framed the core question: "Everybody agrees that state tort law is a form of regulation." Chief Justice John Roberts asked whether the suit was "an attempt to evade" the Court's earlier rulings on emissions. Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned that suits like Boulder's could "bankrupt" defendants and called it a federal law matter. Justice Elena Kagan likened the case to the tobacco and opioid litigation and told the companies' counsel, "I'm waiting to see the distinction." Several justices also resisted the broader claim that the Constitution's structure alone forbids such suits. Besides a tie, the Court could dismiss the case as improvidently granted, saying it should not have taken it. A decision is due by June. The term's first order list, released the same morning, turned away a long list of petitions, including the 'Let's Go Brandon' sweatshirt case and a stack of gun appeals, and added no new cases. The day's second argument, Johnson v. United States Congress, asks whether veterans may challenge the constitutionality of benefits laws in federal district court; a Justice Department lawyer defended the statute in a one-hour argument.

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By the numbers
8 of 9Justices hearing the case after Alito's recusal (Court notice, SCOTUSblog)
~2 hrsLength of Monday's argument in No. 25-170 (CBS News, Just Security)
4–4A tie affirms Colorado's ruling but sets no national precedent (Just Security, Legal Planet)
Economy · White HouseSource ✓ Executive order fact sheet · Press ✓ 6 outlets

Trump lets truckers and farmers run tax-free red diesel on highways through Dec. 31. The tax is deferred, not forgiven

President Trump signed an executive order Monday allowing dyed diesel, the untaxed fuel normally reserved for tractors and other off-road use, to be burned on public highways from Oct. 5 through Dec. 31. The Treasury is told to defer the 24.4-cent-a-gallon federal excise tax on that road use without interest or penalties, and the IRS is told not to fine drivers for it. The money is owed later, not erased; the order asks officials to look for ways to forgive it, possibly through legislation. The Agriculture Department is to work with co-ops and rural distributors to keep dyed fuel in stock, and states are urged to suspend their own taxes and inspections; Mississippi's governor said his state would stop enforcing the ban. The White House says a trucker could save more than $100 a fill-up if states join in, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins put farmers' savings at $640 million. Diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, up from $3.76 before the Iran war, according to AAA. Trump held up the signed order at an evening rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, the first presidential visit there since 2006, where he asked voters to "pretend" he was on the November ballot and called high fuel prices a temporary cost of the war. The American Farm Bureau Federation backed the move.

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Word of the day
Dyed dieselEnergy · Tax

Ordinary diesel colored red so inspectors can spot it. It is sold without federal and most state road taxes because it is meant for farm machinery, generators and boats. Burning it on a highway has been illegal and fined; Monday's order lifts the federal penalty for three months.


World · Iran warSource ✓ Iranian officials' statements as reported · Press ✓ 5 outlets · IRGC claims unconfirmed

Day 220: Iran says Hormuz stays shut until Washington accepts its seven-day plan. Trump says a decision is coming, 'the easy way or the hard way'

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the United States accepts Tehran's plan to reopen it within seven days, a plan built on conditions drawn from the June memorandum that halted large-scale fighting. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait could reopen within a week of an agreement, rejected a military or sanctions path and warned that Iran is "more prepared than before" if Washington chooses force. A deputy foreign minister said Tehran is still reviewing American proposals passed through a mediator. President Trump, who has rejected the seven-day plan, said over the weekend that he has a decision to make on Iran and that it will come "the easy way or the hard way." He did not say what he meant.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, reimposed on July 14, remains in force, and Washington says there is no deal without limits on Iran's nuclear program; Tehran wants the blockade settled first. At sea, the Revolutionary Guard claims to have targeted at least seven tankers in five days, claims that have not been independently confirmed. Iraq is reported to be arranging a tanker to carry its oil through the strait. Brent crude eased Monday, settling at $100.32 a barrel, down 1.89%. The war began Feb. 28.

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Justice · MilitarySource ✓ Pentagon statement as quoted · Press ✓ 5 outlets

Pentagon: Trump approves an Army firing squad for the Fort Hood gunman on Dec. 3. It would be the first military execution in over sixty years

The Pentagon said Monday evening that President Trump has approved Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's recommendation that Nidal Hasan, the former Army major and psychiatrist who killed 13 people and wounded 32 at Fort Hood, Texas, on Nov. 5, 2009, be executed by an Army firing squad. The acting Army secretary said Trump signed off on Friday. The execution is set for Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. at Fort Hood, overseen by the commandant of the U.S. Disciplinary Barracks. It would be the first U.S. military execution in more than six decades and the first by firing squad since World War II. "Judgement day for Hasan has finally come," a Pentagon spokesman wrote.

Hasan was convicted and sentenced to death by a court-martial in 2013, and the Supreme Court turned down his final petition on March 31, 2025. Under military law a death sentence cannot be carried out until the president approves it, which is why this step matters. It does not make the date certain. Robin Maher of the Death Penalty Information Center said Hasan could still seek habeas corpus review in federal court, which could delay it. The Pentagon did not explain the choice of a firing squad. Hasan, paralyzed from the waist down after police shot him during the attack, is held on military death row at Fort Leavenworth, Kan. The announcement comes six days after Tennessee failed to execute Christa Pike by lethal injection.

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MarketsSource ✓ Daily Treasury yield curve (Fed H.15) · Press ✓ 5 outlets · closing levels per CNBC

Nasdaq closes at a record as Nvidia climbs and oil eases. The 10-year yield edges up to 5.31% anyway

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to 27,477.31 on Monday, a record close and its first since Sept. 22, as Nvidia and Microsoft led a second day of gains after Friday's weak jobs report. The S&P 500 added 0.66% to 7,773.95, about 0.3% short of its Aug. 13 record of 7,798.99, and the Dow rose 90.94 points, or 0.18%, to 51,267.90, according to CNBC. Nvidia closed at a record $238.90, valuing the chipmaker near $5.7 trillion. Oil helped: Brent settled down 1.89% at $100.32 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 1.8% at $89.43. Bonds did not join in. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 3 basis points to 5.31%, according to the Treasury's daily curve as published by the Fed, close to the highest level since 2002 that it reached last week.

Friday's report showed payrolls grew only 29,000 in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%, which cooled bets on a second Fed hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting after September's increase to 3.75%–4.00%. Long-term yields climbed anyway, a sign that lenders want more pay to tie up money for a decade while oil sits near $100. Goldman Sachs expects third-quarter earnings per share for the S&P 500 to grow about 27% from a year earlier, CNBC reported. That is the case for the rally. The case against is the risk-free rate: when a Treasury note pays 5.3%, stocks have to earn their keep.

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In brief
  • Supreme Court sends Garcia v. Hobbs and Trevino v. Hobbs back to the Ninth Circuit to reconsider in light of its Louisiana v. Callais voting-rights rulingOrder list · SCOTUSblog
  • Court also turns away two challenges to COVID-19 vaccine mandates and asks the Solicitor General's views in seven casesSCOTUSblog · CNN
  • Friday's jobs report: payrolls +29,000 in September against about 84,000 expected; unemployment 4.2%CNBC · Quartz
  • Congress is in recess until Nov. 9 to campaign; the stopgap funding the government runs to Dec. 11CBS · The Hill · NLIHC
  • Iraq is reported to be arranging a tanker to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz despite the closureGulf News · UANI
  • White House proclaims Fire Prevention Week and Child Health DayWhiteHouse.gov · The Hill
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Unverified — what we could not confirm

"The S&P 500 hit a record Monday." The Nasdaq did. The S&P closed at 7,773.95, about 0.3% below its Aug. 13 record of 7,798.99 (CNBC, Dow Jones data).
"The diesel order wipes out the federal tax until New Year's." It defers payment without interest or penalty. Forgiving the tax is only something officials are told to explore, possibly through Congress.
"Alito has announced his retirement." He told CBS he thought about it and will revisit it each term. An earlier NPR report that he had announced it was retracted.
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDEThe Court opens its term with Boulder's climate suit against Big Oil. Alito sits out, and a 4–4 tie would let the case go onSupreme Court · ClimateTrump lets truckers and farmers run tax-free red diesel on highways through Dec. 31. The tax is deferred, not forgivenEconomy · White HouseDay 220: Iran says Hormuz stays shut until Washington accepts its seven-day plan. Trump says a decision is coming, 'the easy way or the hard way'World · Iran warPentagon: Trump approves an Army firing squad for the Fort Hood gunman on Dec. 3. It would be the first military execution in over sixty yearsJustice · MilitaryNasdaq closes at a record as Nvidia climbs and oil eases. The 10-year yield edges up to 5.31% anywayMarkets