The 30-year gilt yield hits 6.036%, a 28-year high, and the FTSE 100 drops 0.8%. Healey's Budget is three weeks away
A global bond sell-off and oil back above $100 pushed UK long-term borrowing costs to their highest since January 1998. The Treasury says the Chancellor is sticking to his fiscal rules.
The cost of the British government's longest borrowing climbed to a 28-year high on Wednesday. The yield on the 30-year gilt rose 13 basis points on the day to peak at 6.036% at 13:41 GMT, the highest since January 1998, Reuters reported. It first broke through 6% a week ago, as City AM reported, and the FTSE 100 had already fallen 2.2% in the week to 2 October, its worst week since April. Wednesday's move is therefore a second leg of a sell-off, not a one-day shock. The 10-year yield rose by about 10 basis points as well. The move was not made in London alone. US 30-year Treasury yields returned to their highest since 2002, Bloomberg reported, with oil back above $100 a barrel, and France's bond market was under strain, though the head of the Banque de France said the European Central Bank did not need to intervene. Demand at home held up: the Debt Management Office sold £1 billion of 2031 gilts at an average yield of 4.842%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.39. The pound slipped from about $1.325 in the morning to roughly $1.3213 late in the day, after the dollar gained on higher oil and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate rises, StoneX noted.
Shares fell with bonds. The FTSE 100 closed down 0.79% at 10,458.50, according to Yahoo Finance and BBN Times data. Banks led the decline: Prudential lost 4.6%, Standard Chartered 4.5% and HSBC 4.2%, with Asia-focused lenders hit hardest. The politics is plainer than the market. Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget on 28 October, and the Bank of England decides on rates soon after. Reuters reported that the finance ministry said he stressed fiscal credibility and reaffirmed the government's fiscal rules, and that Bank of America economists expect the Budget to raise public borrowing. Pressure is coming from several directions at once. The IMF's Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to rein in spending, the Financial Times reported, and the Guardian's morning briefing asked whether it is time to end the Bank of England's independence. The Chancellor must now persuade bond investors, not just voters, that the sums add up. Higher gilt yields also feed into mortgage and business loan pricing, which is why a single number on a Bloomberg screen can reach a kitchen table within weeks. The Times reported that house prices are flat amid concern about inflation. Elsewhere in the City, the FT said HSBC plans sweeping job cuts in its UK wealth business as it pushes into artificial intelligence, and the Times reported that a top UK builder is pulling out of London because the economic case has "evaporated". The next test is the Budget itself, twenty-one days away, and the market will not wait politely until then.