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, MON., OCT. 5, 2026No. 1 · 6:00 p.m. BRT6 p.m. BRT
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Elections 2026Press ✓ 7 outlets · percentages per the TSE count as reported by the press

Flávio Bolsonaro leaves the first round ahead of Lula. The two return to the polls on October 25

With the ballots counted, the PL senator took 47.03% of the valid votes and the president 45.16%. On the first day of the new campaign, Flávio added the backing of Zema; Lula blamed the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and his own marketing for the slow start.

The presidential election will go to a runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) on Sunday, October 25. In the count completed Sunday night, Flávio had 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to figures released by the press from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The president, a candidate for reelection, finishes the first stage in second place, a result that surprised the international press and the PT campaign itself. Abstention rose to 21.6%, equivalent to 33 million voters, according to Agência Brasil; Ceará had the lowest rate in the country, 15.5%. CNN Brasil calculated that Lula lost votes in 25 states compared with the first round of 2022. Half of the governors elected on Sunday backed Flávio already in the first round. In Rio, according to O Globo, Flávio won in Barra and Campo Grande, and Lula won in Laranjeiras, Leblon and Copacabana; in Salvador, Lula was ahead in every electoral zone, according to G1. Among the 100 richest agribusiness municipalities, Flávio beat Lula in 83, according to Estadão. The runoff campaign officially restarted at 5 p.m. this Monday, and campaign broadcast time on radio and TV returns to the air on October 9.

The race for endorsements began early. Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo), who ran for president, declared his vote for Flávio and said he could not “sit on the fence.” Allies of Ronaldo Caiado said he will announce support for the PL candidate on Tuesday in Goiânia, where Flávio is expected to go in person. Renan Santos ruled out backing either of the two, and Cury, who came third, spoke of staying silent. On the government side, Lula recorded a statement in which he called himself “very good at knockout” contests and then said he carries on his back the “promiscuity” that took hold in the Supreme Court, in an attempt to break away from the STF. The PT leadership blamed campaign strategist Sidônio Palmeira for the campaign and is demanding a change of course; replacing him with João Santana is under discussion. Reuters reported that Lula is considering naming Geraldo Alckmin finance minister in a possible new term, to attract centrist voters. In Washington, Donald Trump called the result a “great victory” for Flávio but predicted a “very tight” race; commenting on how fast the count was, he even mixed up Brazil with India.

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By the numbers
47.03%valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the first round
45.16%valid votes for Lula (PT); a gap of less than two points
21.6%abstention, about 33 million voters (Agência Brasil)
MarketsSource ✓ B3 · Press ✓ 6 outlets

Stocks jump 7.7% to a record; dollar posts biggest drop in eight years

The market read the first-round result as a bet on an economic policy friendlier to investors. The Ibovespa rose 7.70% and closed at 206,911.89 points, the highest level in its history, according to B3; it was the biggest daily gain since 2020. During the trading session, the index reached 209,605 points. Banks led the way: Bradesco rose 13.78% and Banco do Brasil 12.10%, according to closing reports. The commercial dollar fell 4.12% to R$ 5.002, the biggest daily drop in eight years, according to Valor. Interest-rate futures plunged, and Tesouro Direto even went offline amid the swings in yields. J.P. Morgan raised its recommendation on Brazilian stocks to overweight, and part of the market began to project a 0.50-point cut in the Selic in December. Analysts interviewed by CNN and Valor note that fiscal risk remains in the yield curve and that part of the rally could be given back if expectations for the economy do not pan out. Retail and construction stocks, more sensitive to interest rates, rose up to three times as much as the index, according to Valor. CNN urged investors to be cautious amid the euphoria: the runoff is still open, and every new poll should move prices.

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Word of the day
valid votesElections

The votes cast for candidates, not counting blank and spoiled ballots. The Electoral Courts use them to calculate who wins: in the runoff, whoever gets more than half of the valid votes wins.

Elections · Rio de JaneiroPress ✓ 5 outlets · decision rests with the TSE

Garotinho drops appeal, and Douglas Ruas could be declared Rio governor in the first round

Anthony Garotinho, who ran for Rio governor with his candidacy under challenge, withdrew the appeal he had before the TSE. If the votes cast for him are annulled, Douglas Ruas (PL), the candidate backed by the Bolsonaro family, could end up with a majority of the valid votes and be declared elected without a runoff. Eduardo Paes, who would have faced Ruas in the second round, called the withdrawal a “maneuver” and accused Garotinho of being a “straw” candidate.

The TSE gave the Office of the Electoral Prosecutor-General two days to weigh in before it decides. Garotinho said “let the people bear the consequences.” The Rio election was nationalized by Ruas's campaign, and he said he was surprised by the strong vote.

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CongressPress ✓ 5 outlets · figures from the count

PL elects 121 deputies, the biggest caucus since the MDB's in 1990, and reaches 28 Senate seats

The PL was the party that elected the most federal deputies and senators. With 121 seats, it will have the largest caucus in the Chamber since the MDB's in 1990, according to Estadão. In the Senate, it elected 19 members and now totals 28 senators; the MDB won seven seats and the PT six. Turnover in the Chamber reached 35%.

The Chamber will have 109 women, the largest female caucus in history, three transgender deputies and three Indigenous deputies starting in 2027. Agribusiness emerges from the vote stronger. The new Senate, further to the right, already weighs on the agenda: the review of the PEC that ends the 6x1 schedule remains set for Tuesday, but the opposition is trying to delay it.

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Justice · STFPress ✓ 6 outlets

The STF enters the campaign: Lula criticizes the Court, Fachin defends popular sovereignty and Kassio leaves Bolsonaro's release until after the runoff

The Supreme Court became a central topic of the runoff. Lula said he carries the “promiscuity” established at the STF and presented himself as the only “anti-system” candidate, calling Flávio the “face of the system.” STF president Edson Fachin said no claim to power can prevail over popular sovereignty. Justices interviewed by CNN foresee a reform of the judiciary if Flávio wins, and the PL caucus in the Senate is discussing limiting the Court's criminal jurisdiction.

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, rapporteur of Jair Bolsonaro's criminal review, wants to rule on the former president's release only after the runoff and is considering deciding by injunction, according to Folha and O Globo. Bolsonaro, under house arrest, asked for Flávio's visits to be allowed.

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In brief
  • Moraes shelves inquiry into senator and Bolsonarista bloggers suspected of threatening a Federal Police officerValor · Folha
  • Federal Police postpone André Esteves's testimony as a witness in the Banco Master investigationValor · UOL
  • Elected São Paulo's top-voted state deputy, Eduarda Campopiano attacks Erika Hilton; women lawmakers go to the prosecutors' officeFolha · G1
  • Siberian hospital placed under quarantine after death of an employee of a plague research instituteCNN Brasil · Valor
  • Trump's approval falls to 32%, the worst of his career, per Reuters/IpsosFolha · CNN Brasil · Valor
  • Huawei and Qualcomm sign a 5G and AI patent licensing dealValor · UOL
  • Opening of a discount store causes a crush and closes streets in Brás, São PauloG1 · Folha
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Unverified — what we could not confirm

“Gilmar Mendes voted with a cell phone in hand.” False. A G1 fact-check shows the justice was holding a wallet with the voting cheat sheet.
“There was foreign interference in the result.” The TSE says there is no sign of international interference. Wings of the TSE and the STF are wary of the investigation opened on the subject; no evidence has been presented.
“Alckmin has already been picked for the Finance Ministry.” Reuters reports that Lula is considering the announcement. There is no confirmation from the president or the campaign.
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDEFlávio Bolsonaro leaves the first round ahead of Lula. The two return to the polls on October 25Elections 2026Stocks jump 7.7% to a record; dollar posts biggest drop in eight yearsMarketsGarotinho drops appeal, and Douglas Ruas could be declared Rio governor in the first roundElections · Rio de JaneiroPL elects 121 deputies, the biggest caucus since the MDB's in 1990, and reaches 28 Senate seatsCongressThe STF enters the campaign: Lula criticizes the Court, Fachin defends popular sovereignty and Kassio leaves Bolsonaro's release until after the runoffJustice · STF