35,518.55S&P/TSX Composite · Oct 5 close · +15.90, +0.04%

DailyDrop.

C$1.4253USD/CAD · Oct 5 close · loonie 70.16 US cents, from 70.20 Friday
© 2026 DailyDropNo. 1
CANADAAustralia editionBrazil editionComing soonCanada editionFrance editionGermany editionIndia editionItaly editionComing soonJapan editionKorea editionTaiwan editionU.K. editionU.S. editionAll editions →
, MON., OCT. 5, 2026No. 1 · 6:00 p.m. ET6 p.m. ET
S&P/TSX35,518.55▲0.04%10/5USD/CAD1.43▲0.06%10/5S&P 5007,773.95▲0.66%10/5WTI$89.43▼1.84%10/5Gold$4,156.80▼0.13%10/5
Politics · QuebecSource ✓ Élections Québec figures as reported · Press ✓ 6 outlets · final seat count may shift on recounts

The Parti Québécois wins Quebec with a minority government. It promises a referendum, but only after Trump leaves office

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party took 59 of 127 seats on about 28% of the vote, five short of a majority. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec was shut out, and its leader lost her own riding.

Quebecers elected a Parti Québécois government on Monday night, but not the one the party wanted. CBC News projected a minority, and the tallies reported by CTV, the Globe and Mail, CNN and Al Jazeera agree on the shape of it: the PQ at 59 seats in the 127-seat National Assembly, five short of the 64 needed to govern alone. The Quebec Liberals under Charles Milliard rose to about 40 seats and will form the official opposition. Éric Duhaime's Conservatives won about 19, and Québec solidaire roughly nine on a live tracker. The Coalition Avenir Québec, in power since 2018, won no seats at all. Premier Christine Fréchette, who switched ridings to run in her hometown, lost Trois-Rivières, according to CTV News.

The PQ took about 28% of the vote, which reporters describe as the smallest share ever to win an election in Quebec. Courthouse News, citing Élections Québec, put the Liberals at 24.4%, the CAQ at 13.3% and turnout at 66.9%. Late surges for the Liberals and Conservatives are what denied Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon his majority. In his victory speech he spoke of the long struggle of French speakers in a mostly English-speaking continent and said it would find its meaning in a country of their own. He also said voters had asked the PQ to work with the other parties, and he has promised a referendum only once Donald Trump has left the White House, in January 2029. Without a majority he would need opposition votes to hold one, and to survive confidence votes in the meantime.

The result lands two weeks before Albertans vote on Oct. 19 in a referendum of their own, a timing that national-unity advocates will notice. Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon's first test is more mundane: the legislature must be recalled, a cabinet named and a budget path agreed with parties that did not vote for him.

Unfold the story and DailyDrop's take
By the numbers
59 / 127PQ seats; 64 needed for a majority (CBC, CTV, Globe and Mail, CNN)
~28%PQ share of the vote, the lowest ever for a winning party in Quebec (Courthouse News, CBC)
0CAQ seats after eight years in government (CTV News, CBC)
Business · EnergySource ✓ company releases as reported · Press ✓ 5 outlets

Cenovus agrees to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion. Suncor sells its Newfoundland offshore stakes

Two oilsands majors made opposite bets on Monday. Cenovus Energy said it will acquire Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock deal with an implied enterprise value of $5.7 billion, paying $12 a share. Shareholders can choose cash, Cenovus shares or a mix, with cash capped at $4.3 billion and the share component at 44.4 million Cenovus shares. The deal adds about 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, and Cenovus sees a path to lift thermal production from the combined properties to 115,000 barrels a day by 2032. It will pay with cash on hand and short-term borrowing, leaving net debt near $3 billion, and expects to close in December.

Suncor went the other way. It agreed to sell its 48% of Terra Nova, 40% of White Rose and 38.6% of West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for $1.2 billion up front, plus up to $350 million that depends on future oil prices, and said it will raise its monthly share buyback to as much as $750 million from $500 million. Ithaca also takes on a $500 million well-compliance program at Terra Nova from 2027 and abandonment and lease liabilities of about $1.4 billion. Closing is expected in early 2027.

Unfold
Word of the day
Enterprise valueMarkets

The price of a whole business: the value of its shares plus its debt, minus its cash. It is how deals are compared when the buyer takes on the target's borrowing as well as its shareholders' stock. Cenovus put Athabasca at $5.7 billion on that basis.

Politics · AlbertaPress ✓ 5 outlets · poll results attributed to each pollster

Two weeks out, Alberta's separation vote looks lopsided. Calgary's mayor says separatists are selling the province to the U.S.

Albertans vote on Oct. 19 on a two-option question: that Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or that the province should begin the process toward a later, binding referendum on separation. The vote itself does not separate anything. Premier Danielle Smith and the cabinet order that set the ballot both say it is not binding. Polling since August has been steady. A Janet Brown Research poll for the CBC, taken Sept. 8 to 21 with 1,200 respondents, had 72% choosing to remain and 23% choosing to start the process. An Ipsos poll for Global News, taken Sept. 18 to 22, found seven in 10 planning to vote to remain and 20% to start the process.

On Monday CBC reported that Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas had accused separatists of selling out Alberta to the United States. He has criticized the ballot question, and has said provincial rules limit what the city can do to campaign. Pollsters warn that the topline may flatter the stay side. Angus Reid found half of Albertans call the question confusing, and Ipsos noted that a high turnout on one side and an absent opposition could narrow the gap.

Unfold
Trade · Canada–U.S.Source ✓ U.S. import-ban notice as reported · Press ✓ 5 outlets

A week into the U.S. import ban on Canadian liquor, whey and motorcycles, the damage is still mostly ahead

The U.S. bans took effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 29. They cover alcoholic drinks such as beer, wine, whiskey and vodka, whey products used in protein powder, gasoline-powered motorcycles and mopeds above 800 cc, and molasses. An analysis cited by The Canadian Press puts the affected goods at about US$967 million of 2025 imports, roughly 87% of it alcohol. President Trump announced the plan on Sept. 8 and used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely used power that lets a president bar imports from countries that discriminate against American commerce. Washington points to provincial boycotts of U.S. alcohol as the discrimination.

BRP, the Quebec maker of Can-Am vehicles, said its Spyder and Canyon models will be shut out of the U.S. market, but expects the financial hit to arrive next year. The bans sit on top of a wider tariff dispute between the two countries.

Unfold
Markets · CanadaSource ✓ Canadian Press close report · Press ✓ 4 outlets · oil and gold settlements from DailyDrop's quote feed

The TSX edges up 0.04% as tech offsets energy, and the loonie holds near 70 US cents

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 35,518.55, up 15.90 points, after sliding as much as 0.5% to about 35,304 earlier in the session. Friday's close was 35,502.65, after a gain of nearly 1%. Oil eased, which weighed on energy stocks through the morning, and Cenovus shares fell on its Athabasca news, but technology names carried the index back into positive territory. The Canadian dollar finished at about 70.16 US cents, or C$1.4253 to the U.S. dollar, against 70.20 cents on Friday. Reuters reported the loonie had fallen four weeks in a row.

South of the border the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to a record 27,477.31, led by Nvidia, and the S&P 500 gained 0.66% to 7,773.95. West Texas Intermediate settled near US$89.43 a barrel, down 1.8%, and COMEX gold near US$4,156.80 an ounce. The index remains below the 36,458 it closed at on Aug. 10, a record at the time.

Unfold
In brief
  • Cenovus expects the Athabasca deal to close in December and net debt to be about $3 billion; it adds about 45,000 boe/dBNN Bloomberg · JPT
  • Suncor lifts its monthly buyback ceiling to $750 million from $500 million starting in OctoberBNN Bloomberg · Baird Maritime
  • Ithaca takes on a $500 million well-compliance program at Terra Nova from 2027 and about $1.4 billion in abandonment and lease liabilitiesBaird Maritime · Mining Weekly
  • Calgary city council passed a symbolic motion in September affirming the city as a vital part of Alberta and Canada, with one vote againstNarcity · Livewire Calgary
  • Forever Canadian's "Unity Bus" campaign, led by Thomas Lukaszuk, has toured Alberta since May; hundreds turned out at its Edmonton office openingCTV Edmonton · Castanet
  • Quebec's previous sovereignty referendums, in 1980 and 1995, both ended in a NoAP · CNN
  • BRP says the ban removes its Can-Am Spyder and Canyon from the U.S. but that the cost will likely not show until next yearThe Canadian Press · Investment Executive
Seven minutes every evening, one front page — see About

Unverified — what we could not confirm

"The PQ will call a referendum next year." Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says he will wait until after Trump leaves office in January 2029, and a minority needs opposition votes to hold one (AFP, CNN, Globe and Mail).
"Christine Fréchette has quit as CAQ leader." She lost her riding. Before the vote she said she meant to stay on as leader, and we found no report of a resignation by press time.
"Alberta's Oct. 19 vote would make separation final." It would not. The vote is non-binding, and the second option only starts a process toward a later binding referendum (cabinet order, Smith).
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDEThe Parti Québécois wins Quebec with a minority government. It promises a referendum, but only after Trump leaves officePolitics · QuebecCenovus agrees to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion. Suncor sells its Newfoundland offshore stakesBusiness · EnergyTwo weeks out, Alberta's separation vote looks lopsided. Calgary's mayor says separatists are selling the province to the U.S.Politics · AlbertaA week into the U.S. import ban on Canadian liquor, whey and motorcycles, the damage is still mostly aheadTrade · Canada–U.S.The TSX edges up 0.04% as tech offsets energy, and the loonie holds near 70 US centsMarkets · Canada