Wall Street falls: OpenAI’s numbers weigh on tech stocks, 10-year Treasury holds at 5.23%
Nasdaq −1.25%, S&P 500 −0.47%, Dow Jones +0.10%. Oil rises by more than 3% and the Fed talks of further hikes. Milan reopens this morning from Thursday’s −1.35%.
On Thursday Wall Street closed mixed, with tech stocks under pressure: the S&P 500 lost 0.47% to 7,765.36 points, the Nasdaq 1.25% to 27,193.34, while the Dow Jones gained 0.10% to 51,231.64. Reuters described a session weighed down by rising yields and oil, which have revived fears about inflation. Bloomberg tied the slump in chip makers to OpenAI’s numbers: according to the Financial Times the company’s annualized revenue would be about $20 billion below what had previously been indicated, and ANSA, citing the paper, speaks of 50 billion, below expectations. DailyDrop found no direct confirmation from the company: the figures remain attributed to the Financial Times.
The point is that OpenAI is the customer on which much of the spending on chips and data centers depends. If its revenue grows less than expected, it becomes harder to justify the debt that the big tech groups are piling up to build computing capacity: Bloomberg spoke of an “AI debt race” that operators are repricing. In the same session the Fed made its voice heard. Christopher Waller said more rate hikes are needed, though with “flexibility” on the pace (Reuters); Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, indicated that rates should rise over the next six to nine months (Bloomberg). The ten-year Treasury yield closed at 5.231%, 4.6 basis points lower than the previous day, after the 30-year bond auction drew solid demand (Reuters); the 30-year fixed US mortgage rate touched 7.40%, a level that, Reuters notes, still holds back demand for homes. The auction’s allotment yield, 5.618% against 5.308% at the previous one, shows how much the market demands to lend to the government over the long term (FinancialJuice).
On oil, WTI gained 3.6% and settled around $91.5 (ANSA: 91.49); Brent closed at $104.28, up 4.07%, according to FinancialJuice. Gold closed at about $4,157 (+0.2%). Among other financial news, American Express was fined $350 million for an inadequate anti-money-laundering program (Reuters, Financial Times). The price increases are tied to the tensions in the Gulf, covered alongside this story. In Europe the day had already gone badly: Piazza Affari closed at −1.35% at 49,298 points, Frankfurt at −1.2%, with oil pushing the indexes down and government bonds under strain (ANSA). The spread between BTPs and Bunds, however, fell to 111 basis points. Christine Lagarde explained to the Eurogroup that the rise in yields depends on global factors. Today the question is whether Europe will reopen following Wall Street or whether relief on government bonds will prevail. The signal to watch remains the Treasury: a ten-year yield stably above 5% makes mortgages and debt more expensive for everyone, in Italy too.