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, FRI., OCT. 9, 2026No. 5 · Morning, 6:00 a.m. BRT6 a.m. BRT
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Elections 2026 · PresidentPress ✓ 5 outlets · margin of error and sample as reported by the press

Datafolha opens the runoff with Flávio at 49% and Lula at 45%; stocks rise 0.94% and campaign broadcast time returns today

Among valid votes, the split is 52% to 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The gap in total votes is twice the margin of error, and the Lula government has 48% approval and 49% disapproval.

Datafolha released the first runoff poll between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) on Thursday, October 8. Flávio has 49% of voting intentions and Lula 45%, according to G1 and Valor. Among valid votes, which leave out blank, spoiled and undecided ballots, the press’s calculation gives 52% to 48%. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 5%, and the undecided, 1%. The margin of error is two percentage points, and 2,520 voters were interviewed on the 6th and 7th, according to coverage of the poll; we did not check the survey’s registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Because the four-point gap in total votes is still close to the combined reach of the margins, part of the press speaks of a situation near a technical tie. The same institute measured the government’s approval rating: 48% approve and 49% disapprove of the Lula administration, G1 reports. Both sides read the number in their own favor. Flávio celebrated the points he gained, and Lula replied that the picture remains undefined and that his duty is to work to win more votes, according to G1 and Valor. Flávio’s campaign sees the PT candidate as stagnant, and Lula’s allies are betting on a late turnaround, Folha reports.

The market had been waiting for the poll. The Ibovespa closed up 0.94% at 206,220 points, lifted by Petrobras, and Valor attributed part of the advance to greater electoral optimism; the commercial dollar stayed near R$ 5.02. On Friday the 9th, free campaign broadcast time returns to radio and TV, and Lula resumes campaign events with a walk in the Federal District, according to G1. Lula’s campaign is expected to start defending balanced public finances and pointing out fiscal holes in Flávio’s proposal, Folha reports. On the other side, Flávio said retirement pensions will be left out of any spending cuts, according to G1, and minister Fernando Haddad said his opponent would freeze the minimum wage, according to Valor; Lula defended keeping the current policy of raising it. In the political arena, the Senate held the third of five discussion sessions on the PEC ending the 6x1 schedule, and Lula demanded that the PL caucus vote in favor. The election will be decided on October 25. Datafolha also polled voters in the Federal District, where Celina Leão has 55% and Leandro Grass 37% in the runoff for governor, according to Valor. On the economy, Flávio’s team ruled out a super-ministry like Paulo Guedes’s and guaranteed a separate Ministry of Development, Valor reports, adding that Décio Oddone, Adriano Pires and Eduardo Pazuello are being floated for Petrobras in a possible government; none of this was confirmed by the campaign. Investors are following these signals, because fiscal policy and the leadership of state-owned companies weigh on the price of Brazilian assets.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
By the numbers
49% vs. 45%Flávio vs. Lula in Datafolha, total votes (Oct. 8)
52% vs. 48%same poll among valid votes, the press’s calculation
48% / 49%approve / disapprove of the Lula government (Datafolha)
Elections · Rio de JaneiroPress ✓ 5 outlets

Zanin denies Paes’s request, and Paes concedes defeat; re-tabulation set for Saturday, with Ruas expected to win in the first round

Justice Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) denied Eduardo Paes’s (PSD) appeal against the TSE decision that voided the votes of Anthony Garotinho, according to G1 and Valor. Paes said on a social network that “a court decision is something we respect” and conceded defeat, Valor, Folha and G1 report. The Regional Electoral Court of Rio (TRE-RJ) scheduled the re-tabulation of the votes for this Saturday, the 10th, which should hand Douglas Ruas (PL) victory in the first round, according to G1. Without Garotinho’s votes, Ruas passes half of the valid votes. Ruas said “the election is over,” according to Valor, and criticized the judicialization of the process, according to Agência Brasil. The certification of the governor-elect comes after the re-tabulation. At 37, he will be the state’s youngest governor since 1959, according to O Globo. Last night’s edition reported that Paes would go to the STF to ask for a runoff; the appeal was filed, rejected and, hours later, the mayor accepted the result. As a result, Rio voters return to the polls on October 25 only to choose the president. The official proclamation of the result is still pending. Garotinho’s candidacy had already been blocked by the TRE-RJ, and the votes he received, about 3% of the valid votes according to the published count, were treated as sub judice. On the government to come, Folha reports that Ruas plans to loosen the police lethality index and make it easier for security agents to buy their own homes; this is an intention reported by the newspaper, still without official detail.

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Word of the day
re-tabulationElections

A new official sum of the votes after a court decision voids or validates votes. It is what confirms who was elected.

Markets · EnergyPress ✓ 5 outlets · close shown at the top of the page

Stocks rise with Petrobras, and interest rate futures fall after auction; in New York, Nasdaq loses 1.25% and oil jumps

The Ibovespa rose 0.94% to 206,220 points, and Petrobras was the standout: preferred shares gained 2.12% and common shares 3.13%, according to Reuters. Interest rate futures fell sharply after a Treasury auction, Valor reports. The National Treasury sold R$ 33.3 billion in fixed-rate bonds, the largest volume since December 2020, according to Folha. The commercial dollar closed near R$ 5.02, slightly higher.

In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765.36 points, and the Nasdaq slid 1.25% to 27,193.34, with tech stocks pressured by doubts over artificial intelligence spending and high interest rates. The Dow Jones rose 0.10%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 4.6 basis points to 5.231% after a 30-year auction with solid demand, according to Reuters. WTI rose about 3.6% to near US$ 91.5, and Brent topped US$ 104, according to Valor. In the early hours, oil eased after Trump spoke of talks with Iran and said he will not attack before the American elections in November, Reuters and CNA report. Gold stayed near US$ 4,157, up 0.2%.

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Elections 2026 · Social mediaPress ✓ 4 outlets

Cury declares his vote for Flávio, Lula gathers elected influencers and deepfake enters the digital fight

Psychiatrist and writer Augusto Cury declared his support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, but said it is not a “blank check” and that he will hold the candidate to account, according to G1 and Valor. Elected governors have also joined, Agência Brasil reports; Cleitinho, of Minas Gerais, backs Flávio but defends ending the 6x1 schedule.

On the digital front, Lula gathered young elected influencers, and Flávio’s allies are organizing a response on social media, according to G1. G1 also labeled as false a video in which Flávio supposedly says he will cut the 13th-month salary and retirement pensions; the speech was manipulated with artificial intelligence. In a livestream, the candidate showed videos made with a deepfake of his face and attacked the PT. Folha reports that a group that received cryptocurrency for a pro-Flávio video promised to return it after the backlash. The TSE called in the Federal Police to investigate attacks and threats against Electoral Justice employees, according to G1.

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WorldPress ✓ 4 outlets

Russia bombs eastern Ukraine, and the Kremlin joins Rubio in speaking of a stalemate; Houthis attack Riyadh and airlines suspend flights

A Russian bomb killed 33 civilians on a street in a city in eastern Ukraine, according to Reuters; G1 speaks of more than 30 dead. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the war is in a dangerous stalemate, and the Kremlin said it agrees with the assessment, Reuters reports. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are due to meet Ukrainian negotiators, according to a U.S. source who spoke to the agency.

In the Gulf, the Houthis said they had attacked Riyadh’s airport again, and a witness reported an evacuation, AP reports. Lufthansa and Indian airlines suspended flights to the Saudi capital, according to Reuters. Iran promised to block more routes in the Strait of Hormuz, which supported oil during the day.

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In brief
  • Meta bans TikTok from advertising on its apps, according to BloombergReuters · CNA
  • American Express fined US$ 350 million over failures in combating money launderingReuters · Valor
  • Nvidia-backed Australian data center operator Firmus drops its IPOReuters · Bloomberg
  • US suspends Microsoft from permanent-residence program for tech workers, says VanceReuters · AP
  • Pentagon to livestream the execution of the Fort Hood shooterAP · Reuters
  • South Korea conducts first test of a domestically made hypersonic weaponCNA · Japan Times
  • About 20,000 take to the streets of Madrid after the death of an evicted elderly womanG1 · Reuters
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Unverified — what we could not confirm

“Video shows Flávio saying he will cut the 13th-month salary and retirement pensions.” G1 found that the speech was manipulated with artificial intelligence. Flávio said pensions are outside the spending cuts.
“The UFPE fire was criminal.” The Federal Police are investigating, but the forensic examination was suspended over structural risk, according to Folha. There is no conclusion.
“Datafolha shows Flávio 52% to 48%.” That is the result among valid votes, calculated by the press. Among total votes, it is 49% to 45%, with a margin of error of two points.
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDEDatafolha opens the runoff with Flávio at 49% and Lula at 45%; stocks rise 0.94% and campaign broadcast time returns todayElections 2026 · PresidentZanin denies Paes’s request, and Paes concedes defeat; re-tabulation set for Saturday, with Ruas expected to win in the first roundElections · Rio de JaneiroStocks rise with Petrobras, and interest rate futures fall after auction; in New York, Nasdaq loses 1.25% and oil jumpsMarkets · EnergyCury declares his vote for Flávio, Lula gathers elected influencers and deepfake enters the digital fightElections 2026 · Social mediaRussia bombs eastern Ukraine, and the Kremlin joins Rubio in speaking of a stalemate; Houthis attack Riyadh and airlines suspend flightsWorld

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Statements as posted, not fact-checked.