Brussels wants a probation period for new member states. And to curb the veto of countries such as the Netherlands
Those who join could lose their voting rights or EU money for years if the rule of law wobbles. On sanctions and taxes, a qualified majority would be enough. The Netherlands would lose a brake.
On Tuesday the European Commission presented a plan to speed up EU enlargement. In Brussels, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos proposed giving new member states a probation period. Anyone who undermines the rule of law during that period could lose their voting rights or EU money. According to most reports the period lasts up to fifteen years; some outlets write that the length differs per policy area, from three to fifteen years. After that the arrangement lapses. An unlimited safeguard would, in Kos’s view, create first- and second-class members. NOS, NU.nl, Trouw, FD and De Telegraaf reported the proposal. It is meant as an answer to an old dilemma: the EU wants to bring in Ukraine and the Western Balkans, but fears countries that dismantle the rule of law after joining and can then block every decision. De Telegraaf headlined that Von der Leyen wants to sharply curb the Dutch right of veto.
That last point concerns the existing member states. The plan wants a qualified majority to be enough in areas such as sanctions, energy tax and the fight against tax fraud: 55 percent of member states, together accounting for 65 percent of the EU population. Today a single country can block such a decision. Changing the voting rules themselves does require unanimity, so the Netherlands keeps the final say here. Montenegro, with about 600,000 inhabitants, wants to become the 28th member in 2028; Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are seen as frontrunners. The Commission wants to use the new safeguards in early November in the final negotiations with Montenegro. Heads of government will discuss the plan next week at an EU summit. That should show whether large member states such as France and Germany go along, and whether countries such as Hungary, which often use the veto, block the plan. Because changing the voting rules requires unanimity, a single country can hold up the second part of the proposal. That is precisely the problem the Commission wants to solve. The Netherlands has been one of the strictest countries on enlargement in recent years, and every accession must also pass the House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer). The cabinet has not yet responded on the substance. Supporters of the proposal see a way to decide faster in a dangerous time; critics see a power grab from Brussels. For the Netherlands the tension lies in the second half of the plan. A strict probation period for newcomers fits the Dutch line. Giving up its own veto on taxes and sanctions is politically far more sensitive, especially for parties that are already critical of Brussels. The proposal played no role on the stock market: the AEX closed at a record and the euro recovered after French interest rates fell.