Brent Crude Climbs 4% Into the $104 Range as Tanker Attacks Continue at Hormuz; 11 Countries Including Japan Agree to Bolster Reserves
Tension in the Middle East pushed oil up another step. Trump's “no attack before the election” narrowed the gain, but ships have not fully returned to the strait. In Manila, Japan and other Asian countries lined up on reserves.
In oil trading on Oct. 8, North Sea Brent futures, the international benchmark, closed up about 4% from the previous day at $104.28 a barrel, and U.S. WTI futures closed up 3.6% at $91.49 (CNBC). Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC, citing a tally by data firm Kpler, reported that nine ships were attacked around the strait in the past week. Oil leaving the strait in the week to the 6th came to 9.5 million barrels a day, about 30% less than before the war. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, about a quarter of production was shut in as Hurricane Isaias approached. The day before, the Houthis, a pro-Iran armed group in Yemen, attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing three people, and Lufthansa and others suspended Riyadh flights (Reuters, NHK). Japan relies on the Middle East for more than 90% of its imported crude. In the Tokyo foreign exchange market on the 8th, the yen was sold on expectations that higher oil would push up prices (NHK). Corporate bankruptcies in the first half of this fiscal year came to just over 5,300, topping 5,000 for a second straight year, and NHK cited rising input costs from the Middle East situation and the weak yen as the background. The price of oil has already reached the ledgers of Japan's small businesses.
What narrowed the gain was a post by U.S. President Donald Trump. On the 8th he wrote on social media, “I will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections,” and also claimed that “productive talks” are under way (NHK, Reuters). The day before, U.S. media had reported that the Pentagon had ordered preparations to resume attacks. According to the Asahi Shimbun, Iran's foreign minister said he would “respond within days” to indirect talks with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz. Also on the 8th, ministers from the 11 countries of the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC), led by Japan, met in Manila and agreed to study a framework to strengthen oil reserves and carry out a coordinated release in an emergency (NHK). What was adopted was a work plan to strengthen reserves; the conditions and volumes for a release have not been decided. How countries build up their stocks and how neighbors support those that fall short is yet to be worked out. A vice minister of economy, trade and industry explained that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had shown willingness to cooperate in building Asian reserves. The same day, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran's “shadow fleet” (Reuters).